Why Resilience Matters

6. TOOL: understanding, anticipating threats

• WHAT ARE THREATS?
  

  
  

  Until now we mixed different words: shocks, stressors, threats and risks.
  

  Let's look at an important difference between them:
  

  
  

  Words describing "disasters"

  Sometimes we want to say that negative conse- quences already materialized, that there have been already disruptions.  Things went wrong. We can use words such as disaster, shocks, and stressors.
  

  Words describing "threats"

  Sometimes we want to indicate the potential of things going wrong. Things can turn into a disaster, or maybe not! We can use words such as risk, hazard, or threat.
  

  
  

  The difference is very important!  Resilience is not only about "bouncing back 
  after a disaster happened". It is also about having the capacity to avert it or to 
  make it less damaging. This is why it is important to look forward at what can go 
  wrong, and develop capacities to address it!
  

  
  

  But appreciating threats is much harder than seeing a disaster! Threats can be 

  hidden. We can have other priorities. We might even feel that we should not worry 

  too much about the future. Resilience is not about "worrying about the future". 

  It is about thinking ahead, anticipating threats and possibilities. Is about thinking 

  about how to live better and more safely. We will never be resilient if we only see 

  disasters, but we do need to anticipate threats.
• IDENTIFYING AND ANTICIPATING THREATS

  What should you consider to identify and anticipate threats?

  Click to open the image below and explore the questions by clicking on the hotspots.

  
  

  
  

  

• RESILIENCE TO WHAT?

  Resilience is threat-specific. We cannot just say "I am resilient!" We might be resilient to flood, but not to earthquakes. We might be resilient to conflict in our community, but not to the loss of our job.

  
  

  We need to specify what threats we are resilient to!
  

  We must say "I am resilient to..."

  

• 
  

  WHOSE THREATS?
  

  This question asks for the perspective of diverse people.

  • What threats affect them? 
  • What are they vulnerable to and should become resilient to?
  • How could they be affected?
  • What are their capacities and resources to avert them?

  Asking "whose threats" has similarities with looking for vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments 
  are often done by development and humanitarian organization. Vulnerabilities are the opposite 
  of resilience. You are vulnerable when you can be affected. A resilience outlook helps to take an 
  empowering approach where the goal is to empower people to overcome vulnerabilities.
  

  
  

  The key is to avoid stereotyping and remember that:

  • everyone is vulnerable to something. For example, a person might be resilient to flood but not to drought.
    
  • we need to look at different scales. Threats might affect a whole community or only groups or individuals. Ethnic minorities might be exposed to different threats and/or affected differently. If your focus is on the most marginalized, vulnerability analysis should be tailor-made.
    
  • resilience is not a given but rather built through many capitals. Resilience is the combination of many different capitals and to understand vulnerabilities you need to assess all of them.
    

  See the example below:
  
• 

  Case: Earthquake Interactive Content
• 
  

  is the global community AWARE of threats?

  All human beings believe that we are strong and resilient. We have accumulated assets 
  and resources and transformed the environment but are we resilient?
  
  We are increasingly exposed to major threats like climate change and inequality which 
  can have a major impact on society and on the world. Not only are we ignoring them at 
  our peril, but we are the cause.

  
  

• 

  Global community-threat Interactive Content
• Resilience for what?

  
  

  What should resilience strengthening contribute to?
  Sometimes developmental goals make us realize the need for resilience building.
  If we want to start an enterprise we could start right away or first assess risks and opportunities.

  
  When focusing on what we want to achieve we ask: 
  Is our enterprise resilient to the likely threats?  
  What could undermine it? 
  What should we be ready to absorb, adapt, transform for it to succeed?
  

  
  

  Sometimes resilience is falsely understood as synonymous with livelihoods. The concept of 
  livelihoods should incorporate shocks, stressors and vulnerabilities but this isn't always the 
  case. Agricultural livelihood projects have failed to make outcomes risk-proof and depleted 
  capitals needed for the overall community resilience. A resilience project is a way to emphasize 
  that whatever is your developmental goal, resilience is a core concern which is strengthened.

• Where to start?

  
  

  
  

  
  

  
  

  To assess and anticipate threats we need to ask different questions.
  

  It doesn't matter what starting point you choose but you must look at all the other aspects. Remain open to revise your view.

  
  

  
  

  
  

  If you start by choosing a threat like the risk of flooding, you will ask for who is affected by it. 
  

  Then you discover that this threat only affects the wealthier people who live closer to the river. 
  The most marginalized people are not really affected the threat because they live uphill.  
  

                                                                    
  If you start with a developmental goal like introducing a new crop you will check how resilient 
  this intervention is. Then you discover that this crop leads to new threats by depleting natural 
  capital.  
  

                             
  If you start by focusing on a specific group of people you will assess what threats they face and 

  how that influences their developmental options. It requires a participatory analysis accounting 

  for all elements.

  
  

  Depending on the starting point, projects will include resilience in different ways.

  
  

  Resilience as the end goal

  
  The starting point of some projects is threats and asking the question of "resilience to what".  Threat reduction is their declared output. These projects identify the shocks and stressors which are most likely to affect the wellbeing and rights of communities. Disaster risk reduction projects may identify a threat like a flood, tsunami, or drought, and set up measures to contain it.
  

  Resilience as means to an end

  
  Some programmes anticipate that shocks and stressors might reduce their intended outcome.  An education programme can realize that girls are threatened with violence on the way to school and therefore stay home. To achieve their educational outcome they might incorporate resilience building to gender-based violence. This is "resilience for what"  and requires an understanding of what threatens the outcomes and how to increase resilience to such threats.
  

• Whatever the change we want to achieve, we must anticipate threats, and consider 
  resilience options. This is even more important for the unprivileged people, shocks, 
  stressors are what often prevent them to improve their conditions. 
  

   

   
  

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  Reflect and write #4 Interactive Content